trade in goods posted better-than-expected growth in the first quarter
of 2026 as surging trade in artificial intelligence (AI)-enabling
electronic components offset the adverse effects of the Middle East
conflict, according to the latest data from the World Trade Organization
(WTO).
Seasonally adjusted global merchandise trade volume rose 1.9% in the
first quarter from the previous quarter and 3.2% from the same period in
2025. In value terms, merchandise trade increased 2% quarter on quarter
and 11% year on year.
The WTO said the year-on-year growth was particularly notable because
trade in the first quarter of 2025 had been boosted by the frontloading
of imports in North America ahead of anticipated tariff increases.
Strong trade in electronic components more than offset the negative
effects of the Middle East conflict, which began in March 2026. The
conflict disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and weighed on
economic growth in net fuel-importing countries as higher energy prices
pushed up costs. World trade in AI-enabling goods surged by more than
40% year on year in U.S. dollar terms during the first quarter.
Asia outperformed all other regions, with AI-related investment driving
trade growth across the region and, to a lesser extent, in North
America. Seasonally adjusted exports and imports in Asia increased 12.9%
and 14.6%, respectively, from the first quarter of 2025.
The WTO said Asia's strong annual growth was partly driven by robust
quarter-on-quarter gains in the first quarter, with exports rising 5.5%
and imports increasing 7.2%. Export growth was fueled not only by China
but also by Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan. Much
of the increase reflected the growing intra-regional trade in
AI-enabling goods.
By value, Asia posted the strongest merchandise export growth among all
regions, with exports rising 20% year on year. The increase was driven
mainly by shipments of precious metals and gold, copper, machinery and
electrical machinery, and ores. Exports of iron and steel,
pharmaceuticals, and clothing, however, declined.
Africa recorded the second-fastest export growth at 14%, supported by
higher shipments of precious metals and gold, copper, fertilizers, and
ores, although exports of cocoa and fuels fell.
On the import side, Asia and Africa also posted strong annual increases,
at 22% and 15%, respectively. In Asia, imports of precious metals and
gold, copper and machinery rose sharply, while iron and steel imports
edged lower.
Among the world’s five largest exporters, all recorded year-on-year
growth in merchandise exports during the first quarter. The Republic of
Korea led with a 38.4% increase, followed by Hong Kong (38.3%), the
United States (15.2%), China (14.7%), and the European Union (9.2%).
Among the top five importers, only the United States recorded a decline
in merchandise imports, which fell 13.6% year on year. Imports increased
in Hong Kong (44.8%), the United Kingdom (28.0%), China (23.0%), and
the European Union (11.4%).
Looking ahead, WTO economists said the prolonged conflict in the Middle
East is likely to result in deeper contractions in the region’s trade
flows by the end of the year, while Asia and North America are expected
to continue posting stronger growth. The overall outlook for global
trade, however, will depend on whether the AI-driven expansion continues
to outweigh the economic fallout from the conflict.
PHILEXPORT News and Features
Published: August 7, 2026
Published: August 7, 2026
August 10, 2026
