AMRO’s ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) 2026
projects regional economic growth at 4.0% for both 2026 and 2027, supported by resilient
domestic demand, strong exports driven by AI-related semiconductor demand,
continued investment, and closer regional economic integration. The region
recorded stronger-than-expected growth of 4.3% in 2025, while inflation remained relatively low. However, AMRO
warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global
energy supplies have significantly increased downside risks, with headline
inflation expected to rise from 0.9% in 2025
to 1.4% in 2026. The report noted
that the severity of the impact will depend on how long the conflict persists,
as prolonged tensions could affect energy markets, logistics, food prices,
tourism, and remittance flows across the region.
projects regional economic growth at 4.0% for both 2026 and 2027, supported by resilient
domestic demand, strong exports driven by AI-related semiconductor demand,
continued investment, and closer regional economic integration. The region
recorded stronger-than-expected growth of 4.3% in 2025, while inflation remained relatively low. However, AMRO
warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to global
energy supplies have significantly increased downside risks, with headline
inflation expected to rise from 0.9% in 2025
to 1.4% in 2026. The report noted
that the severity of the impact will depend on how long the conflict persists,
as prolonged tensions could affect energy markets, logistics, food prices,
tourism, and remittance flows across the region.
Despite these risks,
AMRO stated that ASEAN+3 economies are in a stronger
position than in previous crises due to improved energy efficiency, lower
dependence on oil, low inflation, and sufficient policy space to respond. The
report also highlighted the region’s long-term structural transformation, with
ASEAN+3 becoming more internally connected through
stronger regional supply chains and rising intra-regional demand. The share of
value-added exports to the United States has fallen significantly, while regional
demand within ASEAN+3 has increased to nearly 30% of total exports. AMRO emphasized that deeper regional
cooperation, open trade and investment policies, and accelerated green
transition efforts will be key to maintaining resilience and supporting
sustainable economic growth in the future.Click!
AMRO stated that ASEAN+3 economies are in a stronger
position than in previous crises due to improved energy efficiency, lower
dependence on oil, low inflation, and sufficient policy space to respond. The
report also highlighted the region’s long-term structural transformation, with
ASEAN+3 becoming more internally connected through
stronger regional supply chains and rising intra-regional demand. The share of
value-added exports to the United States has fallen significantly, while regional
demand within ASEAN+3 has increased to nearly 30% of total exports. AMRO emphasized that deeper regional
cooperation, open trade and investment policies, and accelerated green
transition efforts will be key to maintaining resilience and supporting
sustainable economic growth in the future.Click!
May 19, 2026
