Exports of services continue to grow faster than goods this year with digitalization accelerating servicification, while developing countries drive global export growth, according to the UN Trade and Development’s first trade report of the year.
The January Global Trade Update identified 10 trends shaping global trade in 2026 –and the policies and actions needed to help countries navigate change and seize emerging opportunities.
The report said that over the past decade, world services exports expanded by about 5.3 percent annually —more than twice the pace of goods trade— and now account for 27 percent of global trade.
“In 2025, services export growth is expected to reach 9 percent, with momentum likely to continue in 2026. This reflects growing servicification, as services increasingly underpin production across sectors,” it said.
“Advances in digital technology have made many services tradable at scale. Digitally deliverable services now represent 56 percent of global services exports, having grown at an average annual rate of 7.1 percent over the past decade,” it added.
The report also cited the new barriers emerging as the global digital services trade rules tighten. Closing the digital divide –through infrastructure, skills and supportive regulation – will be critical if developing countries are to benefit from the fastest-growing segment of global trade.
It said another trend shaping global trade this year is the surge in South–South trade, which is the trade between developing countries.
South–South merchandise exports surged from about $0.5 trillion to $6.8 trillion between 1995 and 2025. Today, 57 percent of developing-country exports go to other developing economies, up from 38 percent in 1995, it added.
“This surge has been fueled largely by Asia’s regional value chains – especially in East and Southeast Asia – where high- and medium-tech manufacturing accounts for roughly half of South–South trade,” the report said, citing the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) calculations based on UNCTADStat data.
The report said global economic growth in 2026 will moderate trade prospects, investment flows, and policy choices.
“Slower growth affects trade through weaker export demand, tighter financial conditions, and greater exposure to shocks. Commodity-dependent economies may face heightened price volatility, while access to external finance could become more constrained,” it said.
As the impact on developing countries will be significant, the report said policymakers will need to adapt strategies —such as strengthening regional integration or digital trade– to counter global headwinds and build resilient development plans toward 2026.
It said rising tariffs fuel trade uncertainty is another trend as governments are expected to continue using tariffs as protectionist and strategic tools in 2026.
“Smaller, less diversified economies are particularly exposed to rising tariffs and policy volatility. Limited capacity to redirect exports or absorb higher costs can lead to revenue losses, fiscal strain, and slower development. Tariff hikes on commodities may also threaten livelihoods and food security,” it added.
Further, the UN report said trade-restricting and trade-distorting measures are on the rise as national policies reshape commerce.
In 2026, the use of non-tariff measures will expand, driven by environmental, social and security priorities alongside persistent protectionist pressures, it said.
“While affecting global trade, their impact will fall unevenly, as smaller exporters and lower-income economies face rising procedural and compliance costs. More flexible global rules and targeted technical assistance will be essential to ensure inclusive implementation,” it added.
Other trends shaping global trade in 2026 include the reconfiguration of value chains, trade rule reform reaching a crossroads, environmental concerns remaining a key part of global trade initiatives, critical minerals facing volatility amid oversupply and geopolitical risks, and agricultural trade remaining vital for food security.
“Nearly two-thirds of global trade occurs within global value chains, and changes in their configuration are creating new hubs and routes,” the report said. “Proactive measures, including improved logistics, workforce upgrading, and a stronger investment climate, are essential to remain integrated into global value chains.”
January 26, 2026
